11 April 2008
By Tafadzwa Musekiwa (former Zengeza MP)
There is already talk that Zimbabweans are preparing for Mugabe to stay, well the reality is very different from what political analysts want us to believe. Let’s put this into perspective.
Initially we were told before the elections that Tsvangirai had no chance in hell of winning these elections because of Simba Makoni and Mutambara were going to split the vote in the opposition that will give Mugabe an absolute majority.
That turned out to be the opposite, Tsvangirai won resoundingly and the other faction and even Simba Makoni only managed to minimally influence the vote. We were also told that the delimitation of boundaries for the constituencies had favoured Zanu (PF) and Zanu (PF) would get a majority in parliament, yet the reverse was also true.
In fact, for the first time Zanu (PF) are in the minority in parliament since 1980. I have tended to take some of these analysts’ analysis’ and views with a pinch of salt. Whilst sometimes they are accurate, some of the times they are not only inaccurate, but tend to paint a gloomy picture about the political reality on the ground.
At the moment there are a lot of theories being thrown around about how the situation will unfold in Zimbabwe. The reality of the matter is that Mugabe – not necessarily Zanu (PF) – is going down, but that doesn’t mean without a fight. What analysts are failing to tell us is that at the end of the fight, he will go down, which is what Zimbabweans are waiting to see happen in the very near future.
A seriously significant political development has taken place in post independence Zimbabwe after this election, i.e., Zanu (PF) has lost a parliamentary majority and yet we are not being told the implications of this. There is still disillusionment and hopelessness among fellow countrymen, obviously, the main reason being that Mugabe is still the president of Zimbabwe as we speak.
It goes without saying that the departure of Mugabe was not going to be easy, and it’s proving already that it’s obviously not the end, it’s certainly not the beginning, but in fact, it’s just in the middle of the struggle. In the absence of an expert view regarding the implications of Zanu (PF) defeat in parliament, I will try and explain it in simpler terms assuming though hook or crook, Mugabe remains president, which is unlikely anyway. I will just briefly explain why it’s very unlikely that Mugabe will retain power as things stand. This will help in explaining why we need not be disillusioned.
For any government under a parliamentary democracy like Zimbabwe to function, no President, unless in a state of emergency which has to be justifiable, can effectively run the country without a majority in parliament. If, for argument sake, he has a minority, that majority has to support him otherwise its just impossible to run the country. I know some of you are beginning to think about Bingu Wamtarika in Malawi and Musharaff in Pakistan. Hold your horses.
These presidents are not in any way close to the situation as we have in Zimbabwe. Bingu is effectively ruling by decree, but he can afford it, at least I the short term. As fro Musharaff, well everyone knows that he is America’s pawn and can effectively do it without a problem but even he might not be in office for long regardless .The question is can Zimbabwe afford it? Or rather can Mugabe afford it .The answer is a big No, Not at the moment. For everyone to understand, lets put it simply and take one instance.
With inflation pegged at over 100 00 %, the likelihood that parliament will need to approve e.g. salaries for civil servants through a supplementary budget almost every month is real. Government or ministries can’t just go to the Reserve Bank to print money for their salaries. It will be possible but very illegal and unconstitutional. No one can argue that Mugabe has ever done this, because he hasn’t, much as we know him as a despot who has no respect for rule of law, he has followed the law and procedure in this regard.
Parliament has always been there and wiling to approve yearly and supplementary budget without a problem. Will Mugabe do it knowing that parliament won’t approve it? The answer is, very unlikely, why not? It effectively means if the problem persists he will have to declare a state of emergency, something Mugabe doesn’t want to do and won’t do it as long as he insists on being the legitimate leader. I am aware that he is effectively running the country under emergency rule, but that is different from actually declaring it.
I have just given one simple example just to illustrate where the struggle is so far. The real significance of his party’s defeat in parliament is a major development that has devastating implications to Zanu (PF) and Mugabe, no wonder they a running around looking for 16 seats to contest under the assumption that they will regain them and retain a majority in parliament. What they are not aware of is that the MDC (Tsvangirai) is actually preparing to challenge about 45 seats, which we have cited serious fraud and irregularities committed by ZEC officials. (I still have to confirm this information though)
To my fellow countrymen, lets take pride in the fact that so far, half of the job is done and the MDC is doing the finishing touches on the other half, i.e. of getting rid of Mugabe. Everyone is aware of Mugabe’s statements that “Tsvangirai will never rule Zimbabwe …..not in my lifetime”, “your votes are a waste if you vote the MDC” etc the fact of the matter, as opposed to political rhetoric, is that it is very possible and it is going to happen as long as the people of Zimbabwe have a final say on who they want to be their legitimate leader.
In the parliamentary elections, let’s not forget that 54 % of the electorate voted against Zanu (PF). This is evidence enough to show that Mugabe has lost support of the majority of Zimbabwe’s electorate and will never rule Zimbabwe again as long as the people have a voice…Only time will tell. If and when Zimbabwe go for a run off or a rerun, the likelihood that the 54% that voted against Zanu (PF) will do it again is self-evident.
With the voter turnout in the urban areas around 45% in the March 29 parliamentary elections, this time round be rest assured that it will be around 75% if not more, thus giving a resounding win for Tsvangirai in the run off. There is no other explanation that can convince any sober person that Mugabe will win the run off or a rerun.
Like I said before, as long as the people have a final say, Tsvangirai will be president of Zimbabwe and Mugabe will never again rule Zimbabwe in my lifetime. Change is inevitable, but the man won’t go down without a fight, the most important thing however is that he will go down after that fight. The focus on the opposition front should be the minimisation of casualties in this battle as the man goes down and avoid being distracted by sideshows like getting caught up defending ourselves on baseless allegations of vote rigging, propaganda that Tsvangirai begged for a vice presidential post from Chinamasa , whites are going back to their farms , etc , etc.
Tafadzwa Musekiwa is a former MDC MP currently in exile in the United Kingdom. he can be contacted on tafadzwa_Musekiwa@yahoo.co.uk.
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