05 July 2007

By Eddie Cross

During the past 27 years of Zanu PF government in Zimbabwe under Robert
Gabriel Mugabe, the State has slipped from being a reasonably stable,
open democracy with a good civil service and real potential for growth
and development, to an autocratic, corrupt predatory regime that pays
scant regard to the law or the interests of its people. 

The numbers are astounding. GDP has fallen by over half, exports by two-thirds, food
production by 80 per cent, industrial output by 50 per cent. In the
social sphere, life expectancy has declined to the lowest in the world,
falling by a year for every year Mugabe has been in power, all social
indicators are negative and the real incomes of formal sector workers
has declined by 90 per cent.

In the sphere of macro economic management - by no means rocket science
today, the regime has run a budget deficit of over 60 per cent of GDP,
raised taxes equal to another 50 per cent of GDP, stolen at least a
third of real economic output with most of the resulting wealth being
spread amongst an elite of perhaps 2000 individuals and the security
establishment.

As a result, in the midst of a steep decline in economic activity, a
massive expansion in absolute poverty and the collapse of all State
managed services, we have the specter of a small political and military
elite who drive expensive cars, go on shopping trips to Dubai and are
building mansions that would grace the cities of the richest countries
in the world.

It is obscene. While this is going on, we have seen our democracy
subverted and our human rights taken from us in a similar fashion to the
nightmare regimes of the Soviet Union or Germany circa 1930 - 1945.  It
is no exaggeration to say we have seen thousands of political killings
(Gukurahundi), hundreds of thousands tortured, beaten and raped and
millions displaced, both internally and externally.

We know we are not alone in this sort of situation - there are several
such regimes in Africa and even a few elsewhere. The scary thing is that
the Zanu regime would be getting away with all of this if it were not
for a small, brave and dedicated cadre of activists who have worked
tirelessly to record what is going on, publicise the outcome and fight
for matters to be corrected.

It was this group who wrote the report "Breaking the Silence" that first
revealed the horrors of Gukurahundi. It was the UN that disclosed the
extent and seriousness of the Murambatsvina exercise, it was a lone
cameraman working for the State controlled media who photographed the
rioting and subsequent beatings of MDC leaders in March this year and
was beaten to death for his courage.

Even the much maligned IMF has played a small role by continuing to
prepare and put out on its website, detailed technical reports that have
spelt out the truth about the economy in the face of State propaganda.
The great failure has been in Africa itself. There is no point in
Britain or the United States coming out with a harsh critique of Mugabe
and his regime, this is simply brushed aside by Mugabe and his cronies
as another example of "neo-colonialism". 

Other African leaders and the regime here deliberately misinterpret even the
targeted sanctions aimed at the perpetrators of these crimes against humanity as economic
sanctions directed at the people of Zimbabwe rather than the actual
targets themselves.

Gradually the crimes of Mr. Mugabe and his entourage has dawned on
African leaders. When they attend events such as the World Economic
Forum in Cape Town recently they are confronted by the need to resemble
some sort of a profitable and secure place for investment flows from the
rest of the world. It is very difficult to do so while you have errant and truant regimes
like that which exists in Zimbabwe still being treated as a "respected"
member of the African Club of Nations.

Just take the current madness. Mugabe announces that the run away
inflation in Zimbabwe is part of an international "regime change"
agenda. He declares that Britain and the USA are behind the inflation
(do not laugh - in many quarters he is taken seriously when he makes
such ridiculous claims). He then sends out his armed thugs in small
groups to force industrialists and retailers to roll back their prices.
No rational basis - just reduce your prices by "X" or we will do "Y". So
for the past 4 days we have seen hundreds of businesses raided, managers
and owners beaten in some cases, nearly 200 taken into Police custody
and billions of dollars written off stocks of products already paid for.

I am struggling right now to work out what we have lost in our small
business. Customers fighting to get into the supermarket have smashed
the glass front of the store and we have long queues - people anxious to
buy what is available at the low prices and before stocks run out. I
have frozen all buying and by the end of today we will start to close
down - 42 staff out of work. Many others are doing the same thing.
Wholesalers have marked down their stocks and are now billing suppliers
for rebates.

I am contemplating what to do at our level but cannot see anyone being
willing or able to give me a cheque for many hundreds of millions of
dollars in compensation for the measures forced on us. When finally the
whole futile exercise collapses in a heap and we go back to normal
trading, we will not have the cash to pay for new stocks. Of course
there may not be any manufacturers still operating at that point.

Just to give one example of nutty economics, Mugabe style. An empty bag
for 10 kilograms of maize meal costs Z$79 000, the maize at subsidized
prices from the GMB costs Z$26 000 and the new controlled price is Z$85
000 - about half of total costs before any profit accrues to the miller.
Fuel is the same - the landed cost is about US85 cents per litre and
this is equal to Z$170 000. The controlled price is Z$60 000. By the end
of today the only place you will be able to buy fuel will be behind 
closed doors in some back ally after dark - at Z$250 000 a litre or
more.

On Saturday the two teams from the MDC and Zanu PF resume talks in
Pretoria. They are discussing the conditions for the March 2008 elections. I do
not think we will get there. Perhaps that is the real game being played
behind the scenes by the predatory, kleptocratic regime that some call
our government.

Eddie Cross
Bulawayo, 4th July 2007

Previous articles from Eddie Cross

A drought by any other name
MDC has recovered after split and regrouped under Tsvangirai
Leadership in Africa
Diamonds in the sky
Real leadership at last
The dip tank scenario and Zimbabwean politics
Unrest and wildcat strikes increasing

Nehanda Radio: Zimbabwe's first 24 hour internet radio news channel.

	Enter your search terms Submit search form
	Web www.nehandaradio.com